Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 994.989175 1138.146383 1301.958476 1504.893328 1751.798176 2045.392910 2.425385e+03
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 800.204427 983.266300 1214.296582 1533.578993 1973.823136 2576.068849 3.493380e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 709.375554 911.284549 1182.436083 1585.320020 2191.316153 3110.191795 4.700970e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 635.276834 844.340491 1138.987899 1602.944525 2353.059321 3596.628505 6.017871e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 569.815653 777.545667 1081.598027 1583.196998 2444.051721 3984.731374 7.319984e+03
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 529.394830 740.475685 1060.721790 1613.441030 2620.086418 4569.468795 9.302926e+03
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 478.418880 681.013300 996.378583 1558.878143 2629.715740 4832.950959 1.070118e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 437.749674 632.953928 943.911695 1515.446030 2649.195979 5120.693737 1.233750e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 402.073939 589.231532 893.373595 1467.248050 2648.099313 5361.564566 1.400742e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 390.500343 583.103902 904.992186 1535.526677 2903.972479 6306.717357 1.874570e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 375.600324 569.873548 902.447616 1575.515761 3107.256810 7203.030320 2.432879e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 360.142657 554.200632 893.605454 1601.079559 3283.226745 8103.360100 3.119138e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 337.664369 525.712957 860.518446 1575.954002 3342.057376 8720.753929 3.796935e+04
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 323.913217 511.595046 853.191421 1606.203597 3556.230540 9990.985986 5.182424e+04
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 314.302541 503.864094 856.915050 1661.268924 3855.137181 11777.549007 7.589603e+04
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 301.621404 489.397945 845.743079 1680.011617 4057.182737 13345.912863 1.061299e+05
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 286.179324 468.581872 819.682864 1659.004135 4133.483333 14435.219339 1.381579e+05
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 277.040834 458.918144 815.456830 1691.181813 4391.871437 16651.295869 2.109766e+05
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 260.699617 434.343764 777.851674 1633.138978 4332.084534 17152.874716 2.556233e+05
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 246.690214 413.424444 746.343984 1586.965618 4303.735172 17846.281316 3.201172e+05
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 233.342964 393.022964 714.406411 1535.756148 4245.959948 18345.908189 3.929510e+05
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 230.717493 393.492287 727.703348 1608.310454 4673.348903 22538.201001 8.323377e+05
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 225.847593 389.130470 729.905902 1650.833488 5004.523642 26626.405446 1.801351e+06